3 Things 12-8-25

Thing One  

Where the S&P 500 Could Go Next — And What That Means for Your Money

Every year, Wall Street rolls out its forecasts for where the S&P 500 is headed. And every year, we’re reminded of the same truth: nobody actually knows. That’s said, there are credible arguments for strong upside, little to no upside, and meaningful downside between now and the end of next year.

Still, it’s helpful to understand the range of possibilities investors are talking about.

On the optimistic end, firms like JPMorgan and UBS see the S&P finishing next year somewhere near 7,500, with some calling for a potential move toward 8,000 if earnings hold up and interest-rate cuts arrive on schedule. Morgan Stanley is even a little more enthusiastic, putting the target closer to 7,800, which would represent a solid double-digit gain from where we are today.

But those rosy scenarios don’t erase the risks. Valuations are elevated, interest-rate policy remains uncertain, and economic data has been uneven. It’s entirely possible the market ends next year right around current levels—or lower—if earnings stumble or growth slows. That’s the uncomfortable part about investing: the future rarely unfolds in a straight line.

And that’s exactly why your time horizon matters more than any forecast. If you need your money soon—whether for a home purchase, a major expense, or simply peace of mind—this probably isn’t the moment to rely on the stock market to cooperate. When the possible outcomes range from 8,000 to “not much higher than today” to “meaningfully lower,” short-term dollars simply don’t belong in something that unpredictable.

On the other hand, if your goals are long-term—retirement, education funding, building wealth over decades—then the picture looks very different. Over long stretches, markets tend to reward patience, not precision. You don’t have to put everything in at once. In fact, investing gradually and consistently is often the smarter approach. But staying invested, or becoming invested, still makes sense for money you won’t need anytime soon.

The bottom line: forecasts can be interesting, even entertaining, but they shouldn’t guide your financial life. The S&P 500 could deliver strong gains, go nowhere, or take a detour on the way to future growth. No one knows. What is knowable is whether your money is meant for right now—or for the long run. And that should drive your decisions far more than anyone’s year-end target.

Thing Two  

An Update to the Invest America (Trump) Accounts

About a month ago, we wrote about the Invest America Accounts created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA). We noted then that while public conversation often focuses on inequality, we rarely highlight practical tools that genuinely help families build long-term financial security. The Invest America Accounts stood out as one of those rare tools—simple, constructive, and built for real impact over time.

Recently, an important development has made them even more promising.  Michael Dell announced a significant commitment to extend the benefits of the Invest America framework to individuals and families who were not included in the original legislation. This means many working- and middle-class households—those who often fall just outside traditional eligibility lines—now have a clearer pathway to participate.

Equally noteworthy is the signal this sends. Dell’s involvement creates momentum, and it now seems likely that more business leaders and philanthropists will follow his example. This type of partnership between policy and private initiative has the potential to meaningfully broaden who benefits from these accounts.

Of course, these opportunities only matter when families take action. Opening and contributing to an Invest America Account—especially with expanded access—can provide:

·       Early compounding growth

·       A useful financial cushion

·       A structured starting point for long-term planning

·       Access to tools traditionally out of reach for many households

The accounts are designed to help, but they require participation to unlock their potential and that’s where some professional guidance could make a difference.  Because the Invest America Accounts are still new and evolving, this is an ideal moment for families to connect with a financial professional. An advisor can help:

·       Clarify eligibility under both the original and expanded guidelines

·       Determine how these accounts fit into a broader financial plan

·       Make thoughtful decisions about contributions and long-term goals

When we first wrote about the Invest America Accounts, they were a novel opportunity for a select group. Today—thanks to Michael Dell’s contributions and the likelihood that others will follow—they represent an even broader, more accessible path toward financial prosperity.

Thing Three

Just A Thought  

"Commitment is an act, not a word." - Jean-Paul Sartre