3 Things 2-16-26

 Thing One

Choose Carefully

Several years ago, the organization that oversees the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards conducted a revealing experiment. They wanted to see whether prospective clients would truly evaluate an adviser’s competence—or simply respond to confidence and presentation.

They hired a professional DJ, gave him a crash course in financial buzzwords, dressed him in a sharp suit, and placed him in front of individuals actively searching for financial guidance. He had charisma. He spoke smoothly. He used the right phrases. What he didn’t have was meaningful financial training or experience.

After brief meetings, nearly every participant was ready to hire him.

The takeaway wasn’t that people are careless. It was that we are human. We naturally respond to confidence, clarity, and likability. A polished presentation can feel like competence. But when it comes to your life savings, feeling impressed and being properly advised are two very different things.

The real risk in hiring an adviser isn’t usually outright fraud. Thankfully, true swindlers are relatively rare. The greater danger is hiring someone who is simply unqualified—someone who lacks the training, depth of knowledge, or disciplined process required to guide complex financial decisions.

And identifying true qualification takes work.

John Bowman of the CFA Institute has long emphasized that investors should look closely at who is actually making investment decisions. There’s an important distinction between creating a financial plan and selecting investments to implement that plan. Both roles matter. Both require expertise. And both demand accountability.

Credentials can be helpful signals. The Chartered Financial Analyst designation reflects rigorous training in investment analysis and portfolio management. The Certified Financial Planner credential focuses on comprehensive financial planning—retirement, tax strategy, estate considerations, and more. While no designation guarantees excellence, they demonstrate commitment, discipline, and a measurable standard of competence.

Still, credentials alone aren’t enough. Technical knowledge must be paired with judgment, integrity, and the ability to truly listen. An adviser should be able to clearly explain how they are prepared and competent to steward something as serious as a family’s life savings. If that answer feels vague, rehearsed, or evasive, that’s a signal worth noting.

The financial advisory profession has relatively low barriers to entry. In many cases, someone can decide to “hang out a shingle” with minimal experience. Not all advisers are bound by the same ethical standards or fiduciary obligations. That makes due diligence not just wise—but essential.

Investors should ask direct questions. How are you compensated? What credentials do you hold? Who is making the investment decisions? What is your process during market downturns? Do you invest alongside your clients? Clear, thoughtful answers matter far more than a polished pitch.

The experiment with the DJ revealed something important: many hiring decisions are based more on impressions than investigation. That’s understandable—but dangerous.

Choosing a financial adviser deserves time and scrutiny. The right adviser can strengthen your family’s financial health for decades. The wrong one can quietly erode wealth through poor decisions, high fees, or misaligned incentives.

Money is too important to delegate casually. Take the time to be careful, thoughtful, and selective. Look for competence, integrity, transparency, and alignment—someone who has skin in the game alongside you. The effort you invest upfront in choosing wisely can pay dividends for years to come. 

Thing Two  

Early Reflections On 2026

The best way to have a successful year in 2026 is to prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and get ready to be surprised. Nothing about the future is guaranteed, no matter how confident the forecasts may sound. We still need to plan, of course, because thoughtful preparation gives us resilience. But if the last several years have shown us anything—from pandemic shocks to inflation spikes to rapid advances in artificial intelligence—it’s that even the most carefully constructed outlook can change quickly.

Every year, respected institutions publish detailed projections for growth, inflation, and markets. The latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund outlines expectations for global growth moderating but remaining resilient. The Federal Reserve continues to signal a data-dependent approach to interest rates as inflation trends evolve. Meanwhile, the World Bank highlights ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global recovery dynamics. These reports are thoughtful, data-driven, and useful. Yet history tells us that even the best projections are frequently revised.

Uncertainty is not a flaw in the system; it is the system. We like to believe that with enough data we can know what will happen next. In reality, we tend to build narratives that fit what we expect—or hope—to see. Investors do this all the time when trying to time the market. They assemble a list of current events—interest rate policy, earnings growth, election cycles, energy prices, technological innovation—and declare with certainty that it’s time to buy. At that same moment, others use the exact same information to insist it’s time to sell. It’s both fascinating and frustrating how identical data can justify opposite conclusions.

The noise isn’t going away. Financial news runs around the clock. Social media amplifies strong opinions. Economic releases are dissected within seconds. But reacting to every headline is rarely a winning strategy. Change and uncertainty are consistent in their inconsistency. We do not truly know what will happen next, and pretending otherwise often leads to poor decisions.

There is, however, a form of certainty available to us: the certainty that surprises will occur. When we accept that volatility will return, that forecasts will miss the mark, and that unexpected events will interrupt even the strongest trends, we position ourselves differently. Instead of being shocked by downturns or euphoric during rallies, we adapt. We diversify. We maintain appropriate liquidity. We align our portfolios with long-term goals rather than short-term predictions.

Few things in life are certain except death and taxes, and there’s no reason to assume markets or economies will ever behave in a perfectly predictable way. Yet disciplined investors who plan thoughtfully, manage risk prudently, and stay focused on long-term objectives often find themselves close to where they intended to be—just by a path they never would have forecasted.

We can influence outcomes positively through preparation and diligence. That effort is always worthwhile. At the same time, we shouldn’t be overly shocked when bad news arrives or trends shift unexpectedly. That isn’t failure; it’s reality unfolding. If we expect uncertainty rather than resist it, we can move through the year with steadier hands, fewer panic-driven decisions, and a clearer focus on what truly matters. 

Thing Three

Just A Thought  

 "Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece." - Ralph Charell