3 Things 6-30-25

 Thing One

Nobody Knows (But History Tells Us That’s Okay)

From an article in marketwatch .com this week three years ago:

“…When it comes to bear markets, investors can take comfort from history which suggests that where there’s a beginning, there’s always an end.  And according to Bank of America, investors have only got a few months left to endure the bear market that the S&P 500 SPX, 0.33% tumbled into on June 13, at the start of this week. And then will come the bull market.

As per history, points out chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, the average peak-to-trough bear market decline is 37.3% and lasts 289 days. That would put the end to the pain on Oct. 19, 2022, which happens to mark the 35th anniversary of Black Monday, the name commonly given to the stock market crash of 1987, and the S&P 500 index will likely bottom at 3,000.

A popular definition of a bear market defines it as a 20% drop from a recent high. As of Thursday, the index was off 23.55% from its record close of 4796.56 hit Monday, Jan. 3, 2022.  And an end typically marks a beginning with Bank of America noting the average bull market lasts a much longer 64 months with a 198% return…”

There were lots of precise numbers and timing put forth, right?  The S&P will bottom at 3000 on October 19, 2022.  Then it will return 198% over the next 64 months. 

None of it was right. That’s why it’s important for us investors to remember a few things:

·       Investing isn’t about timing the market, it’s about time in the market (the S&P closed around 3800 at the end of June three years ago versus just shy of 6200 last week). 

·       We shouldn’t put capital at risk in the market that we need in the near term.

·       Negative events/shocks have happened throughout our history yet the market has always gone up – given enough time in.

Thing Two

Some Financial Trivia That's Not So Trivial        

·       Did you know that 35% of prime working-age adults (those between age 30 and age 55) have zero retirement savings set aside and that among the 65% that have put something aside, the average net balance is $73,000 (the median balance is $35,000)?

·       And how about life insurance needs? Did you know nearly half of the people with life insurance only have coverage amounts of $100,000 or less and that 1 in 3 parents/families with children under 18 have no life insurance at all – even though they are the sole means of financial support for their children?

·       And speaking of those $100,000–or-less policies, those are the kind that you usually see in employer group plans. While they will likely cover the cost of a funeral, they are not going to replace years of lost income and they’re probably not going to pay off a mortgage or provide much help paying for college.

·       And let’s not forget about debt. Did you know the average person pays “rent" on money” (more commonly known as interest) of $8,000 annually? That’s $8,000 – annually – that can’t be saved, invested, or used in any number of ways that would benefit you and yours rather than somebody else and theirs.

Need some help? Know somebody who might? Contact us, we can help put a plan together.

Thing Three

Just A Thought  

“Cut your excuses in half and double your actions around your goals.” - Robin Sharma